05-03-2006, 11:16 AM
Over the years I have participated on RAT to a handful of discussions on science. Maybe I have already written about the following. Forgive me if I have.
This is a metaphor, among others, that I tell my physics students ever year. The idea is Feynman's. Very briefly:
Imagine you are the director of a Gambling Casino in Nevada in the 1950s when they were owned and run by the Mafia. You are in-charge of the Casino but the money is not yours! You are subject to the Mafia. Premise: everyone knows that in gambling, the house is favored so even if you are honest and do not trick the games, on the long run, over large numbers, the house makes huge profits. Great idea to make money honestly! So the scenario is this: it is an honest gambling casino, you are expected to run it honestly, and ultimately give explanations to someone that is expecting an average amount of profits and expects a certain amount of fluctuations (there are lucky winners that take big jack-pots away). In any case you are expected to give explanations.
One day a client starts a winning streak at black-jack. He keeps winning; he never loses. The croupier does the standard things such as change the deck of cards. The client keeps winning. What do you do? You might naively think the fellow is simply lucky, but you decide to change the croupier. Maybe they are on it together. The client keeps winning. You zoom in with hidden cameras and place undercover experienced croupiers, faking to be normal players, near by him to try to figure out how he cheats. But you uncover no tricks. You kindly invite the client to play another game, say roulette hoping that in the new game the odds will start acting against him. Some games are more house-biased. But incredibly the fellow not only happily accepts to change games but starts another incredible winning streak. You change roulette croupiers and even tables, finally rooms. No success. He keeps winning. You change yet another game and he keeps winning. How does he do it? You try your best, with all the expert help you can muster, to unmask him, catch him cheating,... The guys keeps winning. What is left for you to do? You are honest and can't change the rules or cheat to make hims lose. It is after all an honest Casino. You can't risk that the fellow or others catch YOU cheating. Your credibility as an honest Casino might not recover from the terrible blow. Clients would not return!!! You are running an even greater risk. Your credibility is at stake. In this metaphor you are risking your life if you are not credible. Give a unacceptable answer to the Mafia and you might end up being cut up into tiny pieces and shipped to different parts of the world or buried in cement.
Note that at any point you might have simply concluded that the client is simply lucky, or maybe he has paranormal powers and can mentally read the cards or even control the outcome of an honest random game. As you are in-charge, you are responsible for what you do and say and the Mafia will evaluate you very closely. Do you think they would accept the explanation that the fellow was "simply lucky"? Do you think they would accept the explanation that the fellow had paranormal powers? Maybe all the croupiers and experts you called in to help were actually on the deal, everyone except you! Sounds like paranoia doesn't it? Maybe the Mafia would accept that explanation? Maybe the Mafia might think that YOU are in it with the client! Maybe you are trying to rob them of their honest profits.
Where do you stop being "rational". Can you afford at any point to stop and give in to some explanation that suites you without being concerned that it might not convince someone else? How do you convince someone else that you have done everything possible and can indeed conclude that the fellow was lucky or had super-powers.
This is a metaphor on the rational ("scientific") approach to unexplained phenomena. Some people see the point, others may not see it, get distracted and argue about this or that detail. Then there is always someone that concludes that science is like the Mafia, just as he always suspected.
Ciao
Jeff
This is a metaphor, among others, that I tell my physics students ever year. The idea is Feynman's. Very briefly:
Imagine you are the director of a Gambling Casino in Nevada in the 1950s when they were owned and run by the Mafia. You are in-charge of the Casino but the money is not yours! You are subject to the Mafia. Premise: everyone knows that in gambling, the house is favored so even if you are honest and do not trick the games, on the long run, over large numbers, the house makes huge profits. Great idea to make money honestly! So the scenario is this: it is an honest gambling casino, you are expected to run it honestly, and ultimately give explanations to someone that is expecting an average amount of profits and expects a certain amount of fluctuations (there are lucky winners that take big jack-pots away). In any case you are expected to give explanations.
One day a client starts a winning streak at black-jack. He keeps winning; he never loses. The croupier does the standard things such as change the deck of cards. The client keeps winning. What do you do? You might naively think the fellow is simply lucky, but you decide to change the croupier. Maybe they are on it together. The client keeps winning. You zoom in with hidden cameras and place undercover experienced croupiers, faking to be normal players, near by him to try to figure out how he cheats. But you uncover no tricks. You kindly invite the client to play another game, say roulette hoping that in the new game the odds will start acting against him. Some games are more house-biased. But incredibly the fellow not only happily accepts to change games but starts another incredible winning streak. You change roulette croupiers and even tables, finally rooms. No success. He keeps winning. You change yet another game and he keeps winning. How does he do it? You try your best, with all the expert help you can muster, to unmask him, catch him cheating,... The guys keeps winning. What is left for you to do? You are honest and can't change the rules or cheat to make hims lose. It is after all an honest Casino. You can't risk that the fellow or others catch YOU cheating. Your credibility as an honest Casino might not recover from the terrible blow. Clients would not return!!! You are running an even greater risk. Your credibility is at stake. In this metaphor you are risking your life if you are not credible. Give a unacceptable answer to the Mafia and you might end up being cut up into tiny pieces and shipped to different parts of the world or buried in cement.
Note that at any point you might have simply concluded that the client is simply lucky, or maybe he has paranormal powers and can mentally read the cards or even control the outcome of an honest random game. As you are in-charge, you are responsible for what you do and say and the Mafia will evaluate you very closely. Do you think they would accept the explanation that the fellow was "simply lucky"? Do you think they would accept the explanation that the fellow had paranormal powers? Maybe all the croupiers and experts you called in to help were actually on the deal, everyone except you! Sounds like paranoia doesn't it? Maybe the Mafia would accept that explanation? Maybe the Mafia might think that YOU are in it with the client! Maybe you are trying to rob them of their honest profits.
Where do you stop being "rational". Can you afford at any point to stop and give in to some explanation that suites you without being concerned that it might not convince someone else? How do you convince someone else that you have done everything possible and can indeed conclude that the fellow was lucky or had super-powers.
This is a metaphor on the rational ("scientific") approach to unexplained phenomena. Some people see the point, others may not see it, get distracted and argue about this or that detail. Then there is always someone that concludes that science is like the Mafia, just as he always suspected.
Ciao
Jeff
Jeffery Wyss
"Si vos es non secui of solutio tunc vos es secui of preciptate."
"Si vos es non secui of solutio tunc vos es secui of preciptate."
