04-24-2013, 08:13 AM
Quote:I never understood Peter Heathers calculations about Adrianopel.
What seems to be missing or hard to understand? There are at least three lines of argument.
First, Gothic numbers. Peter Heather has done a lot of work on the Goths, and his estimate of 20,000 soldiers and militia is consistent with Ammianus' report of 10,000 for one of the two main groups at the battle, and is consistent with the best estimates for other comparably-important groups, and is higher than would be expect with Victor of Vita's figure of 80,000 Vandals, young and old, slaves and free, given that the Vandals were at least as important.
Second, Roman numbers. Warren Treadgold estimates the two Praesental armies and the Scolae as 45,500 troops, and that's including the new units Theodosius raised. The Illyrian field army was under western control at the time, and we last see it fortifying Succi Pass at the end of the campaign of 377. The Thracian field army had been defeated at Ad Salices, and enough units were needed to garrison important cities that it's likely out of the action. The Saracen allies aren't particularly numerous, if they arrived in time.
Third, direct evidence of Roman losses. Ammianus states that the Romans lost 2/3 of their forces. So that's 30,000 tops, and less than 20,000 if we drop the new Theodosian units, and we take Ammianus' references to units of 300 as implying most units weren't much above 300 strong. Ammianus states that the Romans lost 35 tribunes. Now that's been taken to imply 35 commanders of 1,000 troops each, but most tribunes were commanders of 500 each and some were aides de camp and others without units. So an average of 500 each makes at least as much sense as 1,000 each. Hoffman argues from the eastern units he expects but doesn't find, but some are eastern units he simply shouldn't expect. For example, the Divitenses iuniores and Tungrecani iuniores, who, I think he suspects were destroyed at Hadrianopolis, had supported Procopius against Valens, and had probably been disbanded in consequence [with soldiers being re-enlisted in new legions to replace the old?].
Quote:He says, that just 20.000 romans died.
Just? He estimates that the Romans lost the emperor, and the equivalent of an entire field army in one battle and that's not to speak of the rest of the war.
