Boris Yeltsin

[Jona Lendering]

I know he was an alcoholic, I know his economic policy combined the failures of communism with the social defects of capitalism, and I know his impulsive behavior was not always wise. Boris Yeltsin will not be remembered as a great statesman.

Still, he was the first leader in Russia to organize more or less democratic elections, and he single-handedly overcame a coup by Communist die-hards. I will never forget that he climbed on that tank, outside the Russian Parliament, and made sure that the democratic reforms continued. He could have been shot any moment. Forum rules forbid to digress upon politics, but on that day in Augustus 1991, he showed that with courage, democracy can overcome dictatorship.

[Robert Vermaat]

Frankly Jona, I read this and my first thought was: "why on earth is Jona posting about this former president?"That was before I saw the news.

For those of you who are even slower than me today (hardly possible I think):

Boris Jeltsin has passed away at age 76.

[Jeroen Pelgrom]

the moment on that tank, that was his great moment!

[Avatar]

Heard it on the radio yesterday. Can't say I'm surprised. After all, the man was all too fond of his vodka. Besides, the man was 76.

Oh well, people die all the time.

[M. Demetrius]

I was writing a book around that time, and talking to a visiting Russian professor here. I said that I'd written in the book that the soldiers and gunners during the times that the tanks arrayed around the city were without ammunition, since the generals didn't want any mistakes.

He replied, "You are very perceptive. Most people in the West didn't know that."

I didn't know, either, I was just writing fiction, and thought it made sense. Not taking anything away from the media moment, but except perhaps for the risk of being run over by the tank, President Yeltsin wasn't in danger there.

Some in the US think he was the necessary intermediate leader between the old USSR and the new Russia. I don't guess anybody will know unless and until the Russian government releases memos and such concerning the matter.

[Jona Lendering]

Hey David, what's that book you've written?

[M. Demetrius]

I started it in the early 80s. It was to be titled Ehud's Dagger, a spy novel set in the now near future...but with the unpredicted collapse of the USSR, establishment of the CIS, emergence of the Russian Mafia, redominating characteristics of the more hard-line Putin regime, etc., etc., things kept moving too fast to rewrite to fit the real history, so after a year or so, I gave up. Only had about 250 pages written, and I still have the notes. Ehud is a historical reference from Judges 3.

It was a lot of work, rendered , and the premise (a forgotten KGB plan to decapitate the US gov't with a couple of purloined MIRV hidden in the coal mines of Vorkuta) could be valid still (I'd supposed they'd hidden six missles with 5 warheads each--but according to a Czech MI defector, there were more like a hundred!), but the intervening government reorganizations of the late 80s and early 90s couldn't be written in with just a chapter or two. It would be like starting over or editing pretty much all the future part of the book, so oh, well. BTW, the attack was partly successful in the book, and a half dozen nuclear warheads did, in fact detonate at their target zones, just outside some major East Coast US cities, though some of the missiles were inoperable, owing to being unmaintained for 30 yrs on their railcars.

Fun, just the same. The unanswered question at the end is what would the Vice President (now President) do in response?

[Tarbicus]

David, can you structure it so you can leave gaps for near future events, without them altering the plot? Then when you're done, take a few weeks to fill in the blanks, and we all get to see how it ends!

[Jona Lendering]

It sounds like it might have been a great novel!

[M. Demetrius]

Well, if someone can predict what the former Soviet Union will look like in around 2017, there's a chance. But I personally think things may change there to look a lot more like the old USSR, by a new name, than they do now. That would change things quite a bit, such that I'd basically be starting over. Believe me, I've thought through it a couple of times. It would be better to rewrite on a new topic than to try to revive it.

Basically, the idea won't fly now, since we've come to an entirely new world that doesn't fit the original book's paradigm. And who can say that the US will be a player at the level it is now at that time? There's some risky winds blowing these days, you know? From various directions--but I am in danger of alerting the political police on the forum, so I'd best leave off with that, eh?

Thanks for the confidence votes, brethren. And, hey, I already told you the ending. Nukes are detonated, the East Coast is toasted, the President is dead, the Vice President is staring out the window of Air Force Two with the phone in his hand trying to decide whether to call in a retaliatory strike or not... Dr. Strangelove, anyone? (Boy I miss Peter Sellers)

[Jona Lendering]

Sounds plausible. I would not be surprised if/when we will discover that mankind went through the eye of a needle on more than one occasion during the last, say, forty years. During the 1973 War between Israel and Egypt, nuclear alarms were sounded; that's something we know about, but I think it may have happened more than once.

The USSR in 2017? I don't know, but I dare to predict the future of mankind in, say, 2047 - so here's the background for another novel:

- sea levels have risen for a meter
- global warming has caused the melting of polar ice
- as a consequence, ancient viruses are no longer deepfrozen and return
- of the 8 billion people, about 75% are ill-fed; insufficient water
- increased methane emission, caused by production of cereals, threatens human life
- as a consequence, average life expectancy in the West has fallen from 70-80 to 60-65 years
- the national state has partly been replaced by capitalist multinationals
- looming nuclear war between Chinese companies, which need oil and uranium, and American companies
- savage civil war in Nigeria (>550 inhab./sq.km)
- political debate about colonizing the sea; human space flight can no longer be afforded
- DNA research and cloning have resulted in new breeds of half-humans

In this world, our hero (a sympathetic man with some old-fashioned macho traits) is fighting for the survival of democracy against a class of politicians who believe that citizenship must be restricted to those who are wealthy enough to buy reproduction rights. The police try to hunt him down, but he flees to the toxic garbage marshes, where he meets runaway half-humans. One of them volunteers to make contact with our hero's wife, who is not allowed to have children and has made a dazzling career as CEO of one of the multinationals that want to declare war upon China.

And our hero is often wondering why his late father was worried about terrorism, and continued to ignore the population bomb. (This father, BTW, was born somewhere in the 1980's, so he may well be one of us RATs.)

[Robert Vermaat]

The USSR in 2017? I don't know, but I dare to predict the future of mankind in, say, 2047 -the national state has partly been replaced by capitalist multinationals

How about a kingdom or a dictotorship, run with the aid of a very conservative Orthodox Church?

- sea levels have risen for a meter
- global warming has caused the melting of polar ice

Meaning Siberia has either been flooded or turned into a very big marsh.

- as a consequence, ancient viruses are no longer deepfrozen and return
- of the 8 billion people, about 75% are ill-fed; insufficient water
- increased methane emission, caused by production of cereals, threatens human life
- as a consequence, average life expectancy in the West has fallen from 70-80 to 60-65 years

I would say the ensuing wars for water and fossile fuel sources will have resulted in widespread famine, far less people and an ever lower average life expectancy.

- looming nuclear war between Chinese companies, which need oil and uranium, and American companies
- savage civil war in Nigeria (>550 inhab./sq.km)
- political debate about colonizing the sea; human space flight can no longer be afforded
- DNA research and cloning have resulted in new breeds of half-humans

Well, that's a very optimstic scenario! But OK, if the other disasters and wars are limited, why not?

CEO of one of the multinationals that want to declare war upon China.

You mean that the shareholders and hedgefunds have finally acted up and decided on the hostile take-over of an unwilling China Inc., which has so far resisted the call to be broken up and sold in parts to gain higher short-term profits? Insolent Chinese - how dare they deny the shareholders their profit! :wink: Of course, about a billion Chinese citizens would have to be made redundant to finance this deal. [/quote]