Climate change and the fall of the West

[Epictetus]

A new article published in Science has studied tree rings to judge climate change over the past 2500 years in Central Europe. According to the abstract:

Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~AD 250 to 600 coincided with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period.

In an article on the BBC the researchers say:

Distinct drying in the 3rd Century paralleled a period of serious crisis in the western Roman empire marked by barbarian invasion, political turmoil and economic dislocation in several provinces of Gaul.

I see the researchers are very careful about causality, meaning they didn't come right out and say climate change caused the fall of Rome, which is probably a sign of careful, serious science.

What do you think? I'm hesitant, but would like to learn more.

[M. Demetrius]

Hmm. Climate change (never mind the modern use of this phrase) can have dire effect on an agricultural society/civilization. Too dry, or too cold and most crops will fail. Too wet and anything that grows underground will rot. Too hot (like here in Texas the last couple of years) and gardening just doesn't produce much. So with that dryness that's mentioned, if it held for several years in a row, everything would be affected. Grains would not ripen, or at least would be smaller crops, etc.

Would that cause the downfall of the West? Maybe, I think. Rome could import from other places that perhaps were not affected (such as Egypt, or Gaul and Hispania. The barbarian neighbors would not be so lucky, and if their crops failed, they would be unable to purchase sufficient food from Rome, and might decide just to come and take it. Couple that with the general instability of the political system, and the gradual demise of Roman military power and economic leverage, and I guess the climate could be said to play a part.

It would be foolish to say that dry weather alone caused the collapse of Western Rome, though. At least that's how I see it. Interesting concept. I wonder what they will say later about the demise of the Modern West....

[Vindex]

I would agree that crop failure due to weather of whatever kind could be a good enough reason for peoples and tribes to move to better areas of production or simply take what they needed from weaker neighbours. Survival is a catalyst for many things.

Not entirely happy with the addition of the "modern" concept of climate change.

[M. Demetrius]

Not entirely happy with the addition of the "modern" concept of climate change.

Me, too. Which is why I said, "never mind."