National Product of the Roman Empire

[Eleatic Guest]

One of the grand questions and one of the most difficult, too, even if we are talking only of orders of magnitude. A really illuminating article was published by the late Raymond Goldsmith who did a great job of explaining his methodology to the non-economist (like me), and made some impressive comparisons to later empires and (early) modern states.

However, some of his premises may be in need of revision.
- he went with a maximum of 55-60 million between 1 and 200 AD, but did not figure in any rise of numbers in this period which I find curious
- he went by the then dominant view of a largely technologically stagnant society, a view which is at odds with the recent reappraisal of the degree of mechaniziation in several sectors of the Roman economy such as mining, and particularly agriculture, in which a wide variety of water-lifting devices next to the grain watermill were found to be actually employed. Since the single most important factor by far is the income per head in the agricultural sector, a positive reevaluation of the productivity of this sector would also have a noticeable effect on the overall calculation.

Now, my question is, is there a more recent calculation of the Roman national product, or its productive capacities in general, which works on more updated premises?

Raymond Goldsmith (1984): An Estimate of the Size and Structure of the National Product of the Early Roman Empire“, Review of Income and Wealth, vol. 30, no. 3, September, pp. 263-288

[Eleatic Guest]

Just found out that an Oxford Project is currently dedicated to a reevaluation of parts, or even the whole Roman economy: http://oxrep.classics.ox.ac.uk/index.ph ... Itemid=104

Quote from Uptake of mechanical technology: [url:1330nhd8]http://oxrep.classics.ox.ac.uk/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=65&Itemid=35[/url]:

The much greater number per century of Roman water-mills than early medieval ones appears to indicate a more intense and widespread usage of the technology in the Roman period (first to fourth centuries AD) by comparison with the early medieval period (fifth to ninth centuries AD). This is an important claim to make; it suggests that the Roman uptake of mechanical technology for productive ends was considerable already during the first century AD, and its use in the second and third centuries could, in part, reflect patterns of per capita growth.

Exactly my sentiments. :mrgreen:

[Sean Manning]

I've seen references to articles discussing the issue, but I can't find them. The Cambridge Ec. Hist of the Ancient World probably discusses them, and it includes a similar calculation for Achaemenid Babylonia which shows that Darius' tax probably wasn't excessive.

There is also interesting work on livestock weights, human heights and states of heath, and house sizes going on right now. Ian Morris has done some work on it.