Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Hannibal\'s War -Statistics
#1
Here are some statistics and facts from the second Punic War, which provide some food for thought:-

* There were roughly 37-39 major battles between Romans and Carthaginians ( depending on whether some are 'doublets' or not - like Herdonea) spread over 16 years, taking place in Spain, Italy and North Africa
*Battle was generally by mutual consent, often after several days preliminary skirmishing
* Numbers were rarely equal, which does not seem to have put off commanders from 'having a go'. The smaller army could consist of as little as 60% of the larger, but on average the smaller army was within 10-15% of the larger. Surprisingly, having the larger army did not always guarantee success, with the smaller army winning as often as the larger ! Confusedhock:
* Overall, the Romans won more often than the Carthaginians (surprise, surprise! ), winning 50% of the time to Carthage's 35% with the rest indecisive
* Hannibal reverses this trend Smile evil: :twisted:
In 6 of his victories, he all but totally destroys his opponent (Trebia 218 b.c., Trasimene 217 b.c. Cannae 216b.c. Campania 212 b.c. Herdonea 212 and 210 b.c. ( assuming not a 'doublet')
* Few battles resulted in decisive victories (only 13- 6 of which are Hannibal, remember 8)
* Decisive battles required some of the following factors:-
-trapped in confined terrain (e.g. Trasimene,Herdonea 212 b.c.)
- surrounded and crowded together (e.g.Cannae 216 b.c.Zama 202b.c.)
- the winner successfully storms the loser's camp ( Herdonea 210 b.c. )
- the losers suffer a long pursuit by cavalry (Zama 202 b.c. )
- ambush on the march or while setting up or leaving camp (Trasimene 217 b.c., Castra Cornelia 204 b.c.)
*Inconclusive battles (at least 6) were usually long slogging matches, ended by nightfall or routs where the winners were too tired/injured to pursue, or the losers successfully defended their camp (Placentia 218 b.c.)
* Most battles seem to have lasted 3-4 hours before one side broke. Most began after full daylight with the armies being led out of camp and formed up, often taking several hours to do this.
* Casualties tended to be as follows :-

....Type of Battle.........%losses(rough average).............%prisoners
......................................winners......losers...........................................
.......Decisive victory.........2-20%........50-90%.....................10-15%......
.......Pursued victory..........2-5% ........35-45%.......................5-10%.......
...Un-pursued victory.........2-15%.......15-35%........................5-7%........
...Inconclusive battle..........5-15%.......5-15%..........................-----.........

Battles could therefore be very bloody, particularly Hannibal's :twisted: where enemy casualties could be very severe indeed. (e.g.Trasimene,Cannae,Zama )
* numbers of wounded are rarely given, though Livy says that the Romans under Scipio Big Grin in defeating the spanish Illergetes, suffered 1200 dead, and 3000 wounded - quite credible given that a rough rule-of-thumb is 3-1.
* The camp was very important, and it was usually sited on a treeless well watered hilltop if possible. In 15 battles out of the 37-39, the losers take shelter in the camp. In 9 cases it is stormed by the winners, in the balance the winners were too tired/weak and withdrew .
* Armies seem to break once casualties reach around 15%, and after breaking, an army would lose two-three times as many again in the pursuit phase ( if one was carried out), while the pursuer's losses are minimal
* Prisoners were frequently taken ( aprox 1 for every 4 killed) and usually ended up as booty sold into slavery.

I am indebted to an old article by Andrew Eastwood for much of the above information.
"dulce et decorum est pro patria mori " - Horace
(It is a sweet and proper thing to die for ones country)

"No son-of-a-bitch ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country" - George C Scott as General George S. Patton
Paul McDonnell-Staff
Reply
#2
Battle of the Metaurus...decisive and probably a massacre for Hasdrubal and his army.
Tot ziens.
Geert S. (Sol Invicto Comiti)
Imperator Caesar divi Marci Antonini Pii Germanici Sarmatici ½filius divi Commodi frater divi Antonini Pii nepos divi Hadriani pronepos divi Traiani Parthici abnepos divi Nervae adnepos Lucius Septimius Severus Pius Pertinax Augustus Arabicus ½Adiabenicus Parthicus maximus pontifex maximus
Reply
#3
interesting numbers but it also shows that winning battles is not the same as winning a war.
gr,
Jeroen Pelgrom
Rules for Posting

I would rather have fire storms of atmospheres than this cruel descent from a thousand years of dreams.
Reply
#4
Quote:I am indebted to an old article by Andrew Eastwood for much of the above information.

Can you post a full reference for this article?

Cheers,

R
Reply
#5
Quote:Can you post a full reference for this article?

With pleasure, Smile Andrew's original article appeared in "Slingshot", the magazine of the Society of Ancients, no. 143, May 1989.
"dulce et decorum est pro patria mori " - Horace
(It is a sweet and proper thing to die for ones country)

"No son-of-a-bitch ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country" - George C Scott as General George S. Patton
Paul McDonnell-Staff
Reply
#6
Many thanks. Smile
Reply
#7
Nice. Useful. Laus.
Wolfgang Zeiler
Reply
#8
Some nice analysis there (which I can't help thinking would be useful in formulating wargames rules amongst other uses).

Interesting point about the smaller force, on average 10-15% smaller, being willing to have a go. I can't help wondering how often they knew for sure that they were the smaller. How accurate could each side's estimate of the enemy be?

Of course numbers are not everything and they would have been taking qualitative factors into account and the makeup of forces. I am reminded of Polybius' verdict on Cannae that it is better to enter a battle with twice as many cavalry, and only half as many infantry, than to be equal in all respects; cavalry superiority surely also being much of the reason why a high proportion of the most (tactically) decisive victories were Hannibal's.


Phil
Reply
#9
Quote:Interesting point about the smaller force, on average 10-15% smaller, being willing to have a go. I can't help wondering how often they knew for sure that they were the smaller. How accurate could each side's estimate of the enemy be?

Good point - you could only judge by spies, scouts estimates and observations(experience counts!), or riding round the enemy camp, and guesstimating from its size (experience counts again!!)

Quote:Of course numbers are not everything and they would have been taking qualitative factors into account and the makeup of forces. I am reminded of Polybius' verdict on Cannae that it is better to enter a battle with twice as many cavalry, and only half as many infantry, than to be equal in all respects; cavalry superiority surely also being much of the reason why a high proportion of the most (tactically) decisive victories were Hannibal's

A shrewd observation - you need mobile/light troops to do that all-important 'killing phase' after the enemy break! :evil: :twisted:

And a telling slant on ancient warfare - the cavalry were few (compared to infantry),expensive, troublesome in the sense of needing lots of looking after, unable to take on Heavy/Close order Infantry frontally......(and hence of little use in a wargame, apart from outflanking manoeuvres Smile ) ) and the 'real' killing machine after it in the 'pursuit' phase - Alexander is another commander who springs to mind for his ruthless pursuits......
"dulce et decorum est pro patria mori " - Horace
(It is a sweet and proper thing to die for ones country)

"No son-of-a-bitch ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country" - George C Scott as General George S. Patton
Paul McDonnell-Staff
Reply
#10
Don't get me started again on the utility of ancient cavalry in the main fighting phase of battles - (real or game; saying 'except for flanking manouevres' is like saying a rugby player is useless except for making intelligent runs down the flank to score tries). :wink: But yes, those other functions before and after the main event were also critical. Smile


all the best
Phil
Reply
#11
Quote:Don't get me started again on the utility of ancient cavalry in the main fighting phase of battles - (real or game; saying 'except for flanking manouevres' is like saying a rugby player is useless except for making intelligent runs down the flank to score tries).

Sorry to generalise, and of course I can be taken to task with countless examples to the contrary, of the 'exception proves the rule ' variety. Smile

Still, if I may be allowed to turn your analogy back on you, if by 'rugby player' you mean 'winger', then you are right - the 'winger/cavalry ' has a function in scoring, mostly on the flanks ( digression: bit like what we are going to do to England at the weekend ! :lol: :lol: ), but no business mixing it withthe 'forwards/infantry'.....
"dulce et decorum est pro patria mori " - Horace
(It is a sweet and proper thing to die for ones country)

"No son-of-a-bitch ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country" - George C Scott as General George S. Patton
Paul McDonnell-Staff
Reply
#12
Quote:( digression: bit like what we are going to do to England at the weekend ! :lol: :lol: ).

Sorry, you were saying? I'm happy to continue with the rugby analogy now! :lol: (And for those of you around the world who missed it, England beat Australia today).

But to get back on topic (and thus make sure the moderator doesn't pull this), your original point about disparity of forces and mutual (though usually unspoken) agreement to give battle is very interesting. I remember being told in a lecture in my War Studies course that in the ancient period as a whole, when there was a big disparity the smaller side more often won. In many cases this is because very large armies were often achievable only by mobilising large numbers of low-grade levies with poor training and morale. Not sure it applies to the 2PW though. I suppose in part it is because a very large army is harder to command and control with no technological aids to communication.

Oh, and did I mention the rugby already? Big Grin

Phil Sidnell
Reply
#13
Quote:Oh, and did I mention the rugby already?

Oh, yes......you mentioned it ! :lol: :lol: .......even more shoching...the All-Blacks lost to France.......who lost to Argentina ????????? What the...? Cry Cry Cry

Anyway, back on topic, if the second Punic war is anything to go by, as a rough rule of thumb as to the biggest army that can be managed without modern 'comms', it would appear that 50,000 is tops..any larger and control seems to drop off markedly.
"dulce et decorum est pro patria mori " - Horace
(It is a sweet and proper thing to die for ones country)

"No son-of-a-bitch ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country" - George C Scott as General George S. Patton
Paul McDonnell-Staff
Reply


Possibly Related Threads…
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Statistics Conal 12 3,060 04-19-2008, 02:04 PM
Last Post: M. Demetrius

Forum Jump: