01-24-2018, 09:01 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-24-2018, 03:52 PM by Steven James.)
There are three mathematical factors in play that determine all the numbers by all the ancient historians writing about the battle of Zama. The first is Valerius Antius’ figures of 12,000 Carthaginians killed and 1,700 taken Carthaginians taken prisoners. The second is Polybius’ comment that Hannibal’s third line and the Roman were nearly equal in number. The third is Polybius’ figure of 20,000 Carthaginians killed and the same taken prisoner.
Valerius Antius’ figures of 12,000 and 1,700 are the prime generators, and by working backwards using all the other ancient numbers, the figure of 12,000 consists of three subtotals, and one of those subtotals is a doublet.
After the battle of Zama, Appian has Hannibal in command of an army of 60,000 foot and 500 horse, and again these numbers are generated from Valerius Antius 12,000 figure which when multiplied by five equals 60,000 men. The low number of cavalry (500) indicates Appian or his source thought that Hannibal in the cavalry encounter described by Zonaras had lost 4,500 cavalry.........Appian 25,000 killed.....Orosius 20,500 casualties.....difference....4,500 men.....Appian mentions 4,000 Carthaginian cavalry and later mentions another 1,000 cavalry.
For Zama, the ancient historians are not looking at official documents showing historical losses, they are just number crunching Valerius Antius, which is the smoking gun.
However, the questions is, who was Valerius Antius' source? It has to be someone earlier than Valerius Antius, unless it was his father. Lucius Cincius Alimentus perhaps, who Livy mentions provided the number of Hannibal's army crossing the Alps. Whoever it is, they have the same mathematical signature (one subtotal added to the total), which I have interpreted to be created by Polybius, although it does not occur all the time in Polybius' writing. In my eyes this would exonerate Polybius.
Valerius Antius’ figures of 12,000 and 1,700 are the prime generators, and by working backwards using all the other ancient numbers, the figure of 12,000 consists of three subtotals, and one of those subtotals is a doublet.
After the battle of Zama, Appian has Hannibal in command of an army of 60,000 foot and 500 horse, and again these numbers are generated from Valerius Antius 12,000 figure which when multiplied by five equals 60,000 men. The low number of cavalry (500) indicates Appian or his source thought that Hannibal in the cavalry encounter described by Zonaras had lost 4,500 cavalry.........Appian 25,000 killed.....Orosius 20,500 casualties.....difference....4,500 men.....Appian mentions 4,000 Carthaginian cavalry and later mentions another 1,000 cavalry.
For Zama, the ancient historians are not looking at official documents showing historical losses, they are just number crunching Valerius Antius, which is the smoking gun.
However, the questions is, who was Valerius Antius' source? It has to be someone earlier than Valerius Antius, unless it was his father. Lucius Cincius Alimentus perhaps, who Livy mentions provided the number of Hannibal's army crossing the Alps. Whoever it is, they have the same mathematical signature (one subtotal added to the total), which I have interpreted to be created by Polybius, although it does not occur all the time in Polybius' writing. In my eyes this would exonerate Polybius.
