11-11-2020, 06:26 PM
Syphax's army, at c60k is too large. Engels in his book on the logistics of the Macedonian army categorically proves that field armies cannot be stronger than 50k.
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Fact free, Engels book uses Alexander army of 65000 and explains how it supplied itself in the field as an army.
HB after cannae, could he march on Rome?
20,000 foot@30 lbs carry capacity=60,000
5,000 mounted@50lbs =250,000
20,000 mules@240 a mule =4,800,000 lbs
Forward lift,510,000 lbs.
Consumption per man per day, 3 lbs food 5 lbs water, 20,000 a day.
consumption mule per day, 20 lbs fodder, 8 lbs water, 56,000 a day.
Consumption per horse day,20 lbs fodder, 8 lbs water, 14,000 a day.
Required each day:90,000 lbs, number of days supply of food/water/fodder carried, 5.6. (food total men 20,000@3=60,000,mounts 25,000@20=50,000)
Distance to manoever 250 miles.
Each day 15 miles, target reached in 16 days.
Apulia pop density 28 per sq mile, grain per sq mile is 15210lbs.
Sq miles covered in a day forwrd march by Hanny`s army, ( 15 miles forward and forgarrs to 5 miles each side of the adncing army) 15*10=150 sq miles@15210 lbs, Hanny can move through Apulia each day using 75,000 lbs from his stock, and aquireing back by confiscation of half the grain in the area his army covers 75,000 which is half the stored grain supply in the region he has moved through.
There is no logistical reason why Hanny cannot march on Rome through Apulia, it being an important wheat proidcing region, with the summers crops held in stores to feed itself over the winter months till next harvest.
Engles gives us Macedonian practice of 1 servent to 10 footman as porters, and 1 per 1 mounted, thats the Macedonian army on the march
HB Army for start of war with Rome was 90k foot, 12k Hoorse and 2040 mules.
Grain per day: 3 lbs a man 10 lbsa horse/mule
90,000*3=270000 a day.
14040*10=140400 a day.
Day requirement 410400.
Forward lift per day:
Mules 2040*250=510000
90,000 (foot)*30=2700000
Forward lift available without use of horses/elephants:3210000 which is 8 days grain carried, on 2040 mules and field Army can supply itself with no resupply for 8 days.
D Hoyas gives Barcid Spain 1.5 Million Population, Spain is 200,000 sq miles, and Barcid spain was about 25% of that, so 50,000 sq miles, which gives Hanny moving over friendly terr of a pop density of 30 a sq mile.
Then through hostile and neutral Gauls/Celts
France is 211209 sq miles, and if the low pop of 6 million Gauls lived in it, thats 28 per sq mile.
Italy is 116,304 sq miles, and 225 Pop of 3250000 gives it a pop density of 28 per sq mile.
It should be clear that the logistics of supply for the primary source numbers are actually sound.
180*3*28*14000=211680000 lbs available, 3210000 carried =214890000 lbs in total, / by 410400 per day consumption,means that Hanny moved over Ground that could supply him for 523 days.
Engles points out that human portage allows a man to carry 10 days grain or equivalent on him in addition to 50lbs of arms/armour, edit, Engels page 18 uses 1 mule per 50 men for non consumables Ie tents, blankets, fuel, possesions not at all how Shean and Gab then take that ratio and totaly misuse it for consumables the army could carry on it..
The other part of the problem is they give Hanny more cav orientated faster manover based army, half as many mules for many times the army size as a Roman, 102000/6200 Legio with 800 mules, = 13,160 mules for Roman amy the same size, which has a forward lift of 3290000lbs, which is 8 days supply on the mules.
So which Army manovers faster, one with 13000 mules or one with 2000?, since both have 8 days or equaivlent grain ration to move with.
10 days required supply for Hanny =4104000
How does it get the next weeks supply after exhusting what he starts with and has with him?.
How many people live in a sqaure mile?, using a 2 crop per year: lets start with 45 per sq mile, thats 180*3*45=24300 lbs of grain per sq mile the army moves through.
So after marching for 10 days, Hanny consumed 4104000, and passed through 243000 per sq mile as he manovered to draw replenishment from.
How much ground has Hanny covered in 10 days?, and how far on either side of his main column, has his manover elements gathered into supply for him?.
Lets go with Hoyas page 103 "90 miles in 10 days" when slowly manovering across southern Gaul, ( Rome manovered at 15 mpd and Hanny could go much faster when he wanted, but why was he moving so slow here we already discussed before iirc).
so that 90 miles forwards, if the forgers go no more than 5 miles either side of the column, a very conservative number, we get Hanny`s army moving through 90*10=900*24300=21870000lbs of grain, of which he needs 4104000 to maintain his stock, leaving 21459960 still to feed the pop he moved through, he has required roughly 20% of the food supply of the region.
Is 45 per sq mile too large a number?, lets try 4 ( a single family) a sq mile:180*3*4=2160*900=1944000, which is a deficit of 2160000, and his start stock of 3210000 has been reduced to 1050000lbs and he has removed 100% of the supply from the region he manovered over.
Lets try 1 person a sq mile: 180*3*1*900=486000 and 3210000 carried, and 4104000 consumed= -408000.
So at 1 a sq mile, to feed iself the foragers have to cover a greater distnce either side of the main column, lets try 10 miles each side, meaning the army covers a 20 mile frontage as it advances, 90*20=1800 sq miles covered instead of 900. 180*3*1=540*1800=927000 plus 3210000 minus 4104000 =376956 in hand. Hanny`s moved 102k men and moved forward 90 miles,on a frontage of 20 miles, meet 1800 Gallic people and removed all there food, to keep his Army close to its start supply.
What if he moves faster?, at the more usual 15 miles a day? over 1 person per sq mile.
150*20=3000 sq miles covered, 1620000 plus 3210000 minus 410400=441860 surplus, and Hannys left some behind and still carrying all he can carry.
Polybios gives us the distance Hanny moved to get to the Rhone,c700 miles, which is 14000 sq miles, so we have 180*3*1*14000=7560000 and 3210000 carried, which is a total of 10770000 and 4104000 consumed every 10 days, means that on day 26 Hannibal has consumed all supplies he has moved over and carried. He has met 14000 people, and taken all there food.
Since the Volcei certainly contained more than 14000 people, and were crushed, we know for sure that the pop density of the regions covered was higher than 1 per sq mile.
A good reason why Armies move at different speeds is the pop density of the ground they move over, lower density the army has to extend to the flanks to increase the sq miles covered to bring in the required supplies, if its a higher density, this is not required and a faster pace forward can be used.
===================================================================================================
Fact free, Engels book uses Alexander army of 65000 and explains how it supplied itself in the field as an army.
HB after cannae, could he march on Rome?
20,000 foot@30 lbs carry capacity=60,000
5,000 mounted@50lbs =250,000
20,000 mules@240 a mule =4,800,000 lbs
Forward lift,510,000 lbs.
Consumption per man per day, 3 lbs food 5 lbs water, 20,000 a day.
consumption mule per day, 20 lbs fodder, 8 lbs water, 56,000 a day.
Consumption per horse day,20 lbs fodder, 8 lbs water, 14,000 a day.
Required each day:90,000 lbs, number of days supply of food/water/fodder carried, 5.6. (food total men 20,000@3=60,000,mounts 25,000@20=50,000)
Distance to manoever 250 miles.
Each day 15 miles, target reached in 16 days.
Apulia pop density 28 per sq mile, grain per sq mile is 15210lbs.
Sq miles covered in a day forwrd march by Hanny`s army, ( 15 miles forward and forgarrs to 5 miles each side of the adncing army) 15*10=150 sq miles@15210 lbs, Hanny can move through Apulia each day using 75,000 lbs from his stock, and aquireing back by confiscation of half the grain in the area his army covers 75,000 which is half the stored grain supply in the region he has moved through.
There is no logistical reason why Hanny cannot march on Rome through Apulia, it being an important wheat proidcing region, with the summers crops held in stores to feed itself over the winter months till next harvest.
Engles gives us Macedonian practice of 1 servent to 10 footman as porters, and 1 per 1 mounted, thats the Macedonian army on the march
HB Army for start of war with Rome was 90k foot, 12k Hoorse and 2040 mules.
Grain per day: 3 lbs a man 10 lbsa horse/mule
90,000*3=270000 a day.
14040*10=140400 a day.
Day requirement 410400.
Forward lift per day:
Mules 2040*250=510000
90,000 (foot)*30=2700000
Forward lift available without use of horses/elephants:3210000 which is 8 days grain carried, on 2040 mules and field Army can supply itself with no resupply for 8 days.
D Hoyas gives Barcid Spain 1.5 Million Population, Spain is 200,000 sq miles, and Barcid spain was about 25% of that, so 50,000 sq miles, which gives Hanny moving over friendly terr of a pop density of 30 a sq mile.
Then through hostile and neutral Gauls/Celts
France is 211209 sq miles, and if the low pop of 6 million Gauls lived in it, thats 28 per sq mile.
Italy is 116,304 sq miles, and 225 Pop of 3250000 gives it a pop density of 28 per sq mile.
It should be clear that the logistics of supply for the primary source numbers are actually sound.
180*3*28*14000=211680000 lbs available, 3210000 carried =214890000 lbs in total, / by 410400 per day consumption,means that Hanny moved over Ground that could supply him for 523 days.
Engles points out that human portage allows a man to carry 10 days grain or equivalent on him in addition to 50lbs of arms/armour, edit, Engels page 18 uses 1 mule per 50 men for non consumables Ie tents, blankets, fuel, possesions not at all how Shean and Gab then take that ratio and totaly misuse it for consumables the army could carry on it..
The other part of the problem is they give Hanny more cav orientated faster manover based army, half as many mules for many times the army size as a Roman, 102000/6200 Legio with 800 mules, = 13,160 mules for Roman amy the same size, which has a forward lift of 3290000lbs, which is 8 days supply on the mules.
So which Army manovers faster, one with 13000 mules or one with 2000?, since both have 8 days or equaivlent grain ration to move with.
10 days required supply for Hanny =4104000
How does it get the next weeks supply after exhusting what he starts with and has with him?.
How many people live in a sqaure mile?, using a 2 crop per year: lets start with 45 per sq mile, thats 180*3*45=24300 lbs of grain per sq mile the army moves through.
So after marching for 10 days, Hanny consumed 4104000, and passed through 243000 per sq mile as he manovered to draw replenishment from.
How much ground has Hanny covered in 10 days?, and how far on either side of his main column, has his manover elements gathered into supply for him?.
Lets go with Hoyas page 103 "90 miles in 10 days" when slowly manovering across southern Gaul, ( Rome manovered at 15 mpd and Hanny could go much faster when he wanted, but why was he moving so slow here we already discussed before iirc).
so that 90 miles forwards, if the forgers go no more than 5 miles either side of the column, a very conservative number, we get Hanny`s army moving through 90*10=900*24300=21870000lbs of grain, of which he needs 4104000 to maintain his stock, leaving 21459960 still to feed the pop he moved through, he has required roughly 20% of the food supply of the region.
Is 45 per sq mile too large a number?, lets try 4 ( a single family) a sq mile:180*3*4=2160*900=1944000, which is a deficit of 2160000, and his start stock of 3210000 has been reduced to 1050000lbs and he has removed 100% of the supply from the region he manovered over.
Lets try 1 person a sq mile: 180*3*1*900=486000 and 3210000 carried, and 4104000 consumed= -408000.
So at 1 a sq mile, to feed iself the foragers have to cover a greater distnce either side of the main column, lets try 10 miles each side, meaning the army covers a 20 mile frontage as it advances, 90*20=1800 sq miles covered instead of 900. 180*3*1=540*1800=927000 plus 3210000 minus 4104000 =376956 in hand. Hanny`s moved 102k men and moved forward 90 miles,on a frontage of 20 miles, meet 1800 Gallic people and removed all there food, to keep his Army close to its start supply.
What if he moves faster?, at the more usual 15 miles a day? over 1 person per sq mile.
150*20=3000 sq miles covered, 1620000 plus 3210000 minus 410400=441860 surplus, and Hannys left some behind and still carrying all he can carry.
Polybios gives us the distance Hanny moved to get to the Rhone,c700 miles, which is 14000 sq miles, so we have 180*3*1*14000=7560000 and 3210000 carried, which is a total of 10770000 and 4104000 consumed every 10 days, means that on day 26 Hannibal has consumed all supplies he has moved over and carried. He has met 14000 people, and taken all there food.
Since the Volcei certainly contained more than 14000 people, and were crushed, we know for sure that the pop density of the regions covered was higher than 1 per sq mile.
A good reason why Armies move at different speeds is the pop density of the ground they move over, lower density the army has to extend to the flanks to increase the sq miles covered to bring in the required supplies, if its a higher density, this is not required and a faster pace forward can be used.
