11-10-2010, 08:26 PM
The current thinking is that mortality in the ancient world is best modeled using one of the high mortality Coale-Demeny models (either West or South, somewhere between level 1 and level 6).
In practical terms, that means that something on the order of half of all of the children born in any given year may have died by the age of 10, with mortality in the first year of life somewhere on the order of 20-30%. In this model overall life expectancy at birth is low, i.e. somewhere between 20-30 years, precisely because infant mortality is so high.
The book by Parkin cited above is decent. There's also a good short introduction by Bruce Frier in the Cambridge Ancient History (2nd edition), Volume 11 (The High Empire), pp. 787-816. The census declarations from Roman Egypt are probably the best actual ancient source; See the book on this by Bagnall and Frier, The Demography of Roman Egypt.
In practical terms, that means that something on the order of half of all of the children born in any given year may have died by the age of 10, with mortality in the first year of life somewhere on the order of 20-30%. In this model overall life expectancy at birth is low, i.e. somewhere between 20-30 years, precisely because infant mortality is so high.
The book by Parkin cited above is decent. There's also a good short introduction by Bruce Frier in the Cambridge Ancient History (2nd edition), Volume 11 (The High Empire), pp. 787-816. The census declarations from Roman Egypt are probably the best actual ancient source; See the book on this by Bagnall and Frier, The Demography of Roman Egypt.
