Kalkriese has nothing to do with the Teutoburg battles

[caiusbeerquitius]

I have seen information calling into question the VAR countermarks, but to the best of my knowledge the coins found to date including the catalogued information on the stolen coins have none of them of the 10 AD series. They all predate that series. So, even if the countermark means something else,...

This is often used as argument, but it is none, speaking strictly methodologically.
1. Coins can NEVER provide anything but a terminus post quem. We cannot use absence of evidence as evidence. It is clear that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, BUT it is not evidence either.
2. We do by far not know enough about the circulation of money in Ancient Rome to be able to see whether the freshly minted coins would have reached the Caecina troops in relevant numbers at all before their departure to Germania. Currently it looks like the new minted coins only went to Raetia and Southern Gaeul at that time, there seem to be some fixed dates which make this plausible. Publication about this is coming soon.
3. The Kalkriese coin horizon was linked by Berger to the Haltern horizon, whch was thought to be clear 9 AD terminus ante quem. Recent investigations and excavations have shown that the Haltern horizon seems to go up to 15 or 16 AD, so the statement about Kalkriese would have normally to be automatically adjusted.
4. The relevant coins are also found (almost) nowhere in camps which most probably belong to the 15 /16 AD camps. Maybe there was no need along the Rhine for the fresh coins, so they simply don´t show up because they weren´t brought there yet at the time? We don´t know yet.