+- RomanArmyTalk (https://www.romanarmytalk.com/rat)
+-- Forum: Recreational Arena (https://www.romanarmytalk.com/rat/forumdisplay.php?fid=6)
+--- Forum: Off-Topic (https://www.romanarmytalk.com/rat/forumdisplay.php?fid=18)
+--- Thread: Extraterrestrial Life (/showthread.php?tid=7485)
Extraterrestrial Life - tlclark - 11-21-2006
Came up in another OT forum.
Whaddya think?
Opinions?
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Tarbicus - 11-21-2006
It's been mathematically proven that there must be billions of ET forms of life out there. But I was quite shocked to read an article in, IIRC, New Scientist (one of that bunch) that it can be mathematically proven ours is the only planet capable of sustaining and developing life.
The possible "microbial" fossils colllected from the moon and Mars can't be proven to be animal fossils, but could just be mineral.
I'm open-minded about it all, but I won't lose sleep over it.
That said, it has been proven that life can live almost anywhere, including space.
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Narukami - 11-21-2006
Some scientists doubt that there are any intelligent beings out there.
One of their arguments is called "Fermi's Question."
It's named for the Italian physicist Enrico Fermi, who asked, "Where are they?"
His point was that technologically advanced aliens, if they exist, should
have visited Earth already.
Since they evidently have not, they don't exist.
I performed an experiment to test the validity of Fermi's question.
At home alone one night, I decided to have lobster for dinner. So I set a
place, opened the door to the street, and waited for a lobster to show up
and crawl onto my plate.
Hours passed.
At 11pm I ended the experiment. No lobster had appeared. So, I concluded, there are no lobsters on Earth.
Since we know that lobsters do exist, clearly there was something wrong
with my reasoning. The error was, of course, that I'd failed to take the
lobster's preferences into account.
Lobsters have their own agenda.
They don't want to come to my house. But the fact that they don't show up doesn't mean they don't exist.
As the SETI scientists like to say, "Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence."
Dr. Timothy Ferris in Like Beyond Earth page 150-151 (c2000 ISBN: 0-684-84937-2)
:wink:
Narukami
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - john m roberts - 11-21-2006
There are many counters to Fermi's Question. For one, some species has to be the first into space and maybe we're it. For another, maybe we're just not that interesting. Or maybe Einstein's light-speed barrier really is insuperable and interstellar travel would just take too long. Or, as some believe, maybe the extraterrestrials are already here, they just don't want us to know about it.
or... - Goffredo - 11-21-2006
Maybe any alien life capable of traveling such long distances would be so advanced that they find nothing interesting about Earth.
There are all kinds of uncertainties in setting up a Fermi-style calculation of alien life in the universe based on us not having yet met aliens. Please leave Einstein's speed barrier alone! It is the most certain thing in this discussion.
Re: or... - Matthew Amt - 11-21-2006
Quote:Please leave Einstein's speed barrier alone! It is the most certain thing in this discussion.
So was flight. And then so was the sound barrier. Hee hee hee...
Nurakami, thanks for that experiment! As Douglas Adams said, "Space is big. REALLY big." There could be a lot of different aliens out there right now, having the exact same discussion we are.
Matthew (only on this planet temporarily!)
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - MARCvSVIBIvSMAvRINvS - 11-21-2006
there definetely is.
its only unreachable for us since we are at the outer rim of our galaxy.
M.VIB.M.
PS and there are zillions of systems and galaxies out there, not to mention other dimensions so to think we are the only ones is nuts.
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - tlclark - 11-21-2006
I used to love Ferris' retort to Fermi, until I read Fermi's original argument and realized Ferris was only caricaturizing it.
Basically, Fermi calculated the amount of time it would take for a sublight civilization to visit each star system and move on. Not considering things like faster than light travel (Sorry Goffredo! I invoke Arthur C. Clarke's first law! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws ), the possibility of multiple "strands" of exploration, and the like, he still estimated that it would only take 16 million years. That's an eyeblink in astronomical terms.
If we consider things like wormholes, Alcubierre drives, multiple colonies, etc, that number collapses to a few 1000, maybe less.
Considering that every rock in the pacific was visited and colonized by low tech Polynesians, it's hard to imagine why a space-faring species wouldn't do the same.
Even if intelligent life was rare, it wouldn't matter. We've had 500 million years of life on this planent, and only 200,000 years of homo sapiens and only 200 years of advanced technology and we are clearly the dominant force here. So once intelligent life starts, even if it is extremely rare, it would proliferate throughout the galaxy. The universe should be brimming with their progeny.
Even if they weren't interested in us, or even if they were content to stay home or close to their home planet, - like the mythical lobster - their energy consumption would be recognizable. There should be literally thousands of bright high-energy hot spots out there. Yet, there aren't. It's hard to imagine a civilization that is very advanced but yet emits no RF EM signatures. I suppose it's possible but why bother? Perhaps to avoid other less friendly cultures. Perhaps we should take the silent skies as a warning then? Don't broadcast your position to hostiles aliens!!
I wonder...and here I invoke Carl Sagan...if there isn't some unknown hurdle yet to cross. If technologically advanced societies just self-destruct, or stagnate or turn inward. I know most of the people I know have no interest in space travel, I think they are nuts, but they seem to be in the majority. Perhaps about the time the Playstation 10 comes out we won't be interested anymore. I sure hope my kids are off this rock when that happens. Ugh.
Arthur C. Clarke always liked to frame things as bets "It I had a hundred dollars..." Since it's all probability anyway, this makes more sense.
So, If I had a hundred dollars...
I would bet 90 on the existence of life somewhere in the universe.
I would bet 10 on the existence of intelligent life somewhere in the universe, but I wouldn't bet a nickel on intelligent life being anywhere within our galaxy or our finding them any time soon.
I will only add, that this makes me REALLY, REALLY sad.
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - tlclark - 11-21-2006
Oh!
One more thing.
Sagan argued that if intelligent life did exist, it would almost certainly want to contact us, contrary to Roddenberry's "prime directive".
Why?
Easy, we have similiar goals: survival.
Entropy is slowing destroying the universe. In that scenario there are only two important resources:
1.) Engergy
2.) Brains
The more intelligent species working on escaping the destruction of the universe, the better!
Travis
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Narukami - 11-21-2006
Fermi's complete argument is an interesting once and quite logical of course.
And yet it does not invalidate Ferris' basic point that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Indeed, it does seem reasonable that an "advanced" civilization would by its very nature create an energy signature of some sort that we should be able to detect. Unless that signature is outside of our ability to "see" it or to understand what we see.
One could postulate that when the alien civilization was emitting RF we were unable to detect it, but now that we are they have moved on to other energy sources once again beyond our means of detection. The evidence may be there, but we do not recognize it as such.
I thought Dr. Lilly made a good point when he said that if we ever hope to communicate with an off world intelligence we might prepare by leaning how to communicate with a non-human intelligence right here on Earth - dolphins. Although his work is no longer held in high regard by some, Lilly's suggestion is still a valid one. Perhaps Dolphins have an incredibly sophisticated civilization but until we learn their language we will never know.
All of this speculation is great fun and although I am skeptical, I remain an optimistic skeptic.
I think Matt is quite right -- even as we speak there are alien civilizations having similar conversations.
:wink:
Narukami
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Tarbicus - 11-21-2006
Don't forget panspermia:
[url:17chdoro]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia[/url]
(Bear in mind that microbes carried onto spacecraft have survived for months in space, and they're just common or garden ones. They've even survived re-entry :wink: )
It was the subject of an entertaining BBC Horizon documentary last week.
[url:17chdoro]http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/broadband/tx/aliens/vote/[/url]
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Cornelius Quintus - 11-21-2006
Quote:I performed an experiment to test the validity of Fermi's question.
At home alone one night, I decided to have lobster for dinner. So I set a
place, opened the door to the street, and waited for a lobster to show up
and crawl onto my plate.
Hours passed.
At 11pm I ended the experiment. No lobster had appeared. So, I concluded, there are no lobsters on Earth.
Ave Narukami,
obviously incomplete experimental surrounding.
Repeat your scientific experiment, but flood your first floor and basement first. :wink:
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Tarbicus - 11-21-2006
If you want real entertainment go to Youtube and type in UFO in the search field.
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Narukami - 11-21-2006
Actually...
It was Dr. Ferris who performed the experiment, dressing in tux and setting a formal table for the occasion.
As to flooding my first floor...
Quite right -- one must be willing to meet their "guests" at least halfway. However, that last time there was any flooding in my house it had everything to do with bad plumbing as opposed to good experimental design. And believe me, I have no desire to repeat that water dance again.
Still, you point is well taken Cornelius.
:wink:
Narukami
Re: Extraterrestrial Life - Cornelius Quintus - 11-21-2006
Quote:Actually...
Quite right -- one must be willing to meet their "guests" at least halfway. However, that last time there was any flooding in my house it had everything to do with bad plumbing as opposed to good experimental design. And believe me, I have no desire to repeat that water dance again.
Ave David,
hope your house is dry again now. Last year we had some water in the basement, too. Not enough for swimming, but it was no fun carry anything from there in the second floor to prevent the whole stuff from getting wet...
A waterproof variant of the experiment: open the door and wait for lobbyists coming in 8)
BTW: I tried Jim's hint about youtube, but changed 'UFO' to 'lobster attack'...